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serwis obsługiwany jest przez program Mir
CUMBERLAND SYNDROME - THE GREENHOUSE TRAP
ZBIGNIEW CHARNAS : http://www.zb.eco.pl/zb/191/img/klimat1.jpg 06-10-2005 16:56
The global warming is many a time regarded as the most serious danger for the natural environment. Apart from the invasion on biodiversity this problem is surely one of the most difficult to restrain. However, its largeness and progress are still underestimated and this is because of the confusion with appeared while assesing and relating the phenomenon.
_____To define the direction of the climatic changes we use the average temperature values of the surface of the Earth. During the 20th century it grew up 0,6°C but this does not show the true character and largeness of the changes on the planet. The public opinion is being calmed down by this index as nobody can actually feel such temperature increment. Once in a time the public attension is pointed to the reports of melting glaciers or, on the contrary, of their growth as some media tell. This is confusing. One can ask: which detail is relevant?
_____The more informed know that the maximum warming during the last century made nearly 10°C in January in the centre of Alaska and in the Mongolia area. Simultaneously, some areas of the northern Atlantic and north-west parts of the Pacific got cooled down of approximately the same value. The temperature changes are related to the notable relative and absolute wetness changes (increases and decreases), about which some research workers or journalists quite often forget. Meanwhile, in some institutes and for sure in media, the whole data is being averaged improperly. How can one arithmetically average a drought with a flood, even just in writing? Unbelievable!
_____It is true that some of the glaciers put on height on the tops. It is also true that most of them melt at the bottoms. One should consider the way how the glacier works, how it builds its layers, how it flows down and melts, and what has atmosphere got to do with it.
_____For these traps of nature is responsible partial and transitive cooling down of the surface bases of Seasonal Atmospheric Lows (in contact areas between atmosphere and surface of the Earth), appearing with the general global warming up. This phenomenon is caused by the thickening cloudiness and shadows which it creates. That has been called "Cumberland Syndrome" or a "Warming Interim Conversion Syndrome" (WICS). In the Arctic there is a "rebelled" Cumberland Peninsula, which tends to cool down in the summer.
_____Such stage is temporary. After some time the warm air of the High-pressure Area will warm up the whole globe. I assume that even now on the hights above 2km there are no cools in the Seasonal Low-pressure Areas. The shadow zone is pervading the condensation zone there and because of that the cooling down is being summed with the warming up. Additionally, the hidden warmth of the steam, which now is more than it has been up to the moment in this part of atmosphere, has its own influence on the total balance of the temperature changes. The summed warming up appears in a considerable part of the precipitational cloudiness.
_____As the cooling area makes almost 1/3 of the globe surface, the total warming up makes 0,6°C. But the consequences of the maximum changes heat, cool, dry and flood our environment, of which many of us are not conscious. If the Cumberland Syndrome did not exist, the warming up in the 20th century would have made probably round 2,5°C. And this number shows the largeness of the changes in a better way. In this half of the century, as I assume, the average taken temperature will rise further 5°C. The average surface temperature, which now makes approximately 16°C, will increase several degrees during 21st century. The characteristics of the greenhouse gases increment indicates to the further fast warming and loss the optimum climate on the Earth.
_____For the last 20 years the Sun activity has been falling down and the average Earth surface temperature has been rising up. The human’s influence in this temperature increment is getting bigger and bigger. The line of this diagram, up till now almost completely horizontal, starts to go up (to see illustrative graph* click on the web address below the article title).
_____It is hard not to notice the Sun’s influence on the average Earth surface temperature. But the action of this modulation stay vague. The fluctuations of the direct light radiation are too small to evoke such effects. Recently, it has been said that it is an ionic-condensative action, which uses the solar wind. According to the officially approved researches, till approximately 1950 the warming up was only almost one half of the total warming up value in the 20th century. Meanwhile, the solar activity, descibed by Wolf’s number values, was a little bit smaller by the end of the century than in its middle. On the turn of the centuries the teperature rises up and it looks that to get proper global teperature we should add more and more to the temperature referring to the real solar activity level. The geometry of the temperature diagram changes.
_____The Cumberland Syndrome explains why the increment of the average temperature accelerated during the last 20 years, even though that solar activity decreased. So, please, do not be surprised when the scientifal scenarios do not come true and temperature rises 0,5°C in the nearest decade. In every few years, in next IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report we can find the warming up prognosis definitely different from the previous one. As in the scientifical field the future is terminal, I can bet that it is going to be like I have written it above.
_____The maps of the Seasonal Low- and High-pressure Areas can be found in geographical atlases for secondary schools. These are the maps of pressure and winds in January and July.
_____Does the early warning system, using mass media work? Is there any pilot on board?
_____________
* - Comparison of graphs enclosed in one co-ordinate system. Graph of mean temperature of Earth surface separated in highs, in 20th and 21st century. Graph of m.t.E.s. separated in lows. Graph of aggregate m.t.E.s. with characteristic delusive plateau. And also graph of atmospheric content equivalent of greenhouse gases. {Z.C.}

Zbigniew Charnas
Poland, Warsaw, 7th Oct 2003

Original article in Polish: ZIELONE BRYGADY 1(191)2004

Translated by Ewa Darda
2005

Find other works: ZBIGNIEW CHARNAS
CUMBERLAND SYNDROME, HYALINE ALTERNATIVE

Uzupełnienia i sprostowania:
Komentarze:
Zobacz inne moje prace w INDYMEDIACH
Zbigniew Charnas : http://poland.indymedia.org/pl/2005/09/16072.shtml 15.10.2005 17:10
Kliknij na adres poniżej tytułu komentarza, to przejdziesz do poprzedniej mojej pracy.
Mistake in the English article version
Zbigniew Charnas : http://www.zb.eco.pl/zb/191/klima.htm 30.10.2005 18:15
In the original text I have written in the clause before last of 7th section not "several degrees" but "over a dozen degrees"!!! I am sorry. Please, excuse.
Zobacz następną moją pracę
Zbigniew Charnas : http://poland.indymedia.org/pl/2005/10/16235.shtml 08.12.2005 19:22
Kliknij na adres powyżej .
TSUNAMI CAUTION / Only 0.x *C to eruption !
BSJ : http://www.rurociagi.com/spis_art/2002_1-2/efekt-c.html 19.08.2007 13:34
Only 1 *C (sic.) separates methane hydrates under the Barents Sea's floor from their big eruption. It means, it separated them a few decades ago. But now ?! [hydraty metanu = in Polish]
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